Economy Minister Hernán Lorenzino delivered the 2013 budget proposal to Congress today, giving the nation a peek into the executive branch’s vision for the coming year.

The proposal predicts an exchange rate of $5.10 to the dollar, growth at 3.4%, and growth in investment at 7.4%. The official inflation rate is estimated to hit 10.7% by the end of 2012 and 10.8% in 2013. Tax revenue is expected to total over $822bn, a 22.7% increase from 2012, reflecting at least in part, a rise in inflation. The trade surplus, according to official estimates, will be more than US$13bn.

The current policy of paying off foreign debt with reserves will be continued up until US$7.8bn. This cap exceeds the US$5.7bn paid in 2012 by 40% and 2011’s US$7.5bn by 5%.

Agustín Rossi, Congressional Head of the Frente para la Victoria (FPV), the same party to which President Cristina Fernández de Kircher belongs, was optimistic about the proposal. He applauded the continuation of “social investment” and debt reduction, and commented that the proposal used a “level of reasonable expectations” for growth. He predicted the Budget and Treasury Commission would begin to consider the proposal next Wednesday and that by late October, the congressional Lower House would have approved it and passed it to the Senate.

President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (courtesy of Wikipedia)

When Cristina Fernández de Kirchner won last year’s presidential election with a landslide 54% of the votes, it was not only the amount of support but how far she was ahead of her competitors that made the victory so impressive.

The 46% of the votes she did not win were split between six opposition parties, with second-placed Frente Amplio Progresista (FAP) obtaining a meagre 17%. It was a pretty good reflection of the situation of government and opposition at the time.

After the government lost its parliamentary majority due to a disastrous result in the 2009 election, the opposition did not manage to live up to the expectations placed upon it. Renamed “Group A”, the illusion of a strong, coordinated opposition capable of snatching the political initiative from a weak government quickly faded away. It soon became evident that, unable to set a common agenda, the only thing holding “Group A” together was its animosity towards the government. To paraphrase Borges, they were not united by love, but by horror.

The lack of initiative and fragmentation of the opposition were apparent in the poor performance of an almost paralysed Congress throughout 2010 and 2011, when only 70 and 65 bills were passed respectively, well below the ten-year average of 116.

And so we arrived at October 2011. In the two years since the fateful 2009 election, the government managed to regain control of the agenda, aided by its own initiative, the shock caused by the death of former president Néstor Kirchner, and the lack of a serious and organised political opposition.

It only takes a quick look around, however, to realise that there is an important, and very vocal, sector of society that does not feel represented by the government. As opposition is an integral part of democracy, the question of who represents those people is one that must be asked.

It has become quite evident for many in the past few years, specifically since the campo crisis of 2008, that the weakness of opposition parties has resulted in certain economic groups affected by governmental policies taking political matters into their own hands. At the forefront of this new opposition are those with the most influence on public opinion: the media corporations.

The 'cacerolazos' in Plaza de Mayo (Photo: Luciano Signorelli)

In Argentina, politics has become to a large extent a war between pro and anti-government media groups unabashedly campaigning for their own interests, without much regard for the traditional laws of journalistic ethics.

An interesting debate about the role of the media has since ensued, not only in Argentina, but also in Latin America and other parts of the world. The sanctity of journalism and its classic role as the “fourth estate” have been brought into question as big media groups are, analytically speaking, stripped bare and shown for what they mostly are: businesses. Powerful businesses, with political interests and a massive influence over public opinion and politicians alike.

There is a positive side to this situation, as nothing in a democracy should be immune to analysis, discussion, and criticism. Media groups have always had political and economic interests, and it is a positive thing that people have become more aware of this and can see through their supposed neutrality.

The obvious negative side is that businesses are not elected and are not accountable to society as politicians, government officials, union delegates, and other political institutions are. This is not exclusive to media businesses, as it is becoming clear all over the world that uncontrolled corporations are openly displacing elected politicians from their decision-making roles.

In Argentina, this situation has evolved from a more-or-less open support of certain media groups to specific political parties and candidates, to the current situation where they seem to have mostly given up on politicians altogether. Nowadays, it is journalists like Jorge Lanata with his Sunday TV show that seem to set the opposition’s agenda for the rest of the week.

The debilitating effect of such political weakness was demonstrated by the recent cacerolazos in Buenos Aires. They were small, unorganised gatherings of individuals without any clear direction or common ideas, other than a visceral rejection of the government. It is worrying that for many, being unorganised was seen as a virtue rather than a weakness.

A political movement without solid ideas and organisation is doomed to fail. And politics, like nature in Aristotelian physics, abhors a vacuum. If the vacuum left by a weak opposition is not filled by legitimate and solid political institutions, it is going to be filled by whoever has the power to impose their point of view.

The draft bill for the expropriation of Repsol-YPF has gained the support of the UCR and FAP.

The Deputy Agustín Rossi said that at least 200 deputies will vote in favour of the measure.

The Chamber of Deputies will initiate debate this afternoon on the expropriation of Repsol-YPF shares. It is expected that the House will give the required preliminary approval to make the nationalisation law.

The session will begin at 3.30pm, in accordance with the chairmen of the party blocs, and will last until midnight, to be resumed tomorrow at 10am.

Planning Minister Julio De Vido and Deputy Minister of the Economy, Axel Kicillof, have meanwhile advanced measures to increase the production of hydrocarbons.

The Executive is expected to secure the approval of the Unión Cívica Radical (UCR), Frente Amplio Progresista (FAP), Proyecto Sur and part of the Coalición Cívica and Frente Peronista. The PRO, however, have announced that they will vote against the measure.

The lower House thus appears to reflect the voting pattern in the Senate, where the measure secured 63 votes in favour, 3 against and 4 abstentions.

However, internal differences within UCR have been raised regarding the text. A group of congressmen, headed by Oscar Aguad, are also expected to reject the executive’s draft bill or withdraw at the time of voting.

The initiative entails the expropriation of 51 percent of the shares of Repsol-YPF and YPF Gas. The government has declared that nationalisation is in the public’s interest, reclaiming the national sovereignty of hydrocarbons in Argentina.

The Chamber of Deputies will vote today to ratify the agreement to transfer the six subte lines, premetro, 33 bus networks and Puerto Madero tramlike to the city government.

The lower house secured a government majority yesterday, ratifying the initial approval of the Senate on 21 March.

The controversy over the subte handover was transferred to Congress after Fernández de Kirchner accused Buenos Aires Mauricio Macri of not complying with the agreement signed between the two jurisdictions in January. The president also criticised Macri for increasing the subway fare by 127 percent.

In response, the city government has argued that the federal government has not guaranteed the transfer of corresponding subsidies.

Proyecto Sur Deputy, Fernando “Pino” Solanas, considers the issue a “farce and complete failure;” he has accused the national government of seeking only to “reenforce the concessionary system implemented by Carlos Menem, since Metrovías have robbed all the subsidies.”

“The whole thing is a real legal mess and much malicious intent has been shown, with the aim of confusing everyone,” Solanas stated on Radio Continental.

The House of Deputies has drafted a new bill which would permit a woman to terminate a pregnancy within the first twelve weeks.

For the fourth time in five years, the National Campaign for Legal Abortion Rights presented the Voluntary Interruption of Pregnancy (IVE) bill to decriminalise abortion. The proposal comes in the wake of the landmark ruling last week by the Supreme Court which sanctions abortion in the case of rape.

The initiative, which has gained the support of 53 deputies of the ruling and opposition parties, proposes that a woman should have the right to the voluntary termination of her pregnancy within the first twelve weeks. Additionally, it advocates the support of the national health system in administering the procedure.

Outside the twelve week gestation period, the bill would decriminalise abortion in the case that the pregnancy was the result of rape, if the pregnancy endangered the mother’s life, or if the foetus had serious malformations.

The controversial bill was proposed by Adela Segarra, a deputy for Frente para la Victoria.

“The court’s decision marks a before and after in this discussion. This is the opportune moment to reinstall discussion in the House of Representatives; it is already present in society.”

Speaking against the backdrop of green campaign flags which flanked the Congress Hall, María Luisa Storani, the president of Nuevo Encuentro, reiterated the importance of the draft bill.

“This is a law that once adopted will begin to save lives because it immediately permits women who undergo abortions to have access to the health system.”

If approved the proposal would permit the professional practice of abortion without prior judicial authorisation.

The draft bill is the same that was first discussed in November at the Criminal Law Committee but it lost its parliamentary status at the end of 2011.

The new deputies took office today in the chamber of deputies in congress.

A series of social laws was passed yesterday in the Lower House, achieving preliminary approval before continuing on the Upper House in Congress.

The gender identity bill was partially approved by the majority after five hours of debate. This law allows citizens to change their name and sexual identity without court permission. The president of the General Legislation Commission, Vilma Ibarra from the Nuevo Encuentro Party said: “This is an initiative which will bring respect and dignity to the transsexual people, which includes our Constitution and the human rights treaties that have been incorporated into it.”

Members of the Argentine Federation of Lesbian, Gays, Bisexuals and Transsexuals (FALGBT), the Travesties, Transsexuals and Transgender Association (ATTA), and the National Front for the Gender Identity Law in the Argentine Homosexual Community (CHA) were present during the session and celebrated the preliminary approval.

The part of the law which reached no agreement was that which relates to minors receiving hormonal treatment and sex change with the consent of their parents.

The dignified death bill has also been passed with the approval of 142 lawmakers. Six voted against it and two abstained. This law gives patients more control over which medical treatments they wish to receiveor reject after being informed of their situation. It also takes away the responsibility of the professionals who, working within the law, are faced with the patient’s decisions.

Projects that were also approved included the authorisation of joint military training with foreign troops, a bank holiday scheduled for the 27^th of February 2012 celebrating the bicentenary creation of the national flag,and Argentina’s adherence to the Multilateral Investment Fund of the Inter-American Development Bank.

Additionally, lawmakers ratified agreements with Mercosur for the equalisation and recognition of primary and secondary education between the member states, with Unasur for the commitment to protect democracy and with Unesco for the creation of an international human rights centre in Buenos Aires.

Other bills such as assisted fertilisation and crimes against a minor’s integrity bill have not reached a conclusion. These will be further debated in 2012, after half of the parliamentary seats change.

The congress is currently debating two bills regarding decriminalising abortion totally or partially.

The first bill will grant women the right to abort during the first 12 weeks. If the pregnancy is a result of a rape or it puts the woman’s life at risk, there may be the possibility to abort at anytime before the baby is born.

The partial decriminalisation, however, defends that abortion should be legal only when it endangers the mother’s life or if it is a consequence of rape, although when concerning sexual abuse it is necessary to have judicial approval.

Some congressmen defend that none of the pro-abortion bills should be passed.

The debate will take into account today’s abortion practices in Argentina and its health risks, particularly to women with few financial resources.

Talks about abortion legalisation were today postponed by Congress until after the elections. This was due to the controversial nature of the subject.

A request put in by members of various parties delayed the sessions to discuss the possible regularisation of the practice, which were originally due to start today, until the first of November.

Two bills seek to allow voluntary abortion, while five amendments to article 86 of the criminal code aim to provide exceptions to the prohibition.

Representatives of the Catholic, Orthodox and Evangelical church have already expressed their rejection of this debate through a document entitled “Commitment to Life.”

A used marijuana stencil is held up against the Congress building at the Global Marijuana March (Photo: Beatrice Murch)

The national congress is debating the decriminalisation of marijuana in Argentina. Three separate, but fundamentally similar, proposals have been put forward by different political parties: Libres del Sur, Frente para la Victoria (the party of President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner), and the Union Civica Radical.

The proposal tabled by Congresswoman Victoria Donda Peréz, of the Libres del Sur party, calls for an end to the criminalisation of consumption, possession and growth of marijuana.

Under the current law 23.737, those found with the drug can face a prison term of between one and six years. If the defendant can prove that the product is only for personal use, the sentence drops to anything between one month and two years, or can be reduced to a fine.

However, according to Donda Peréz, the fact that smokers are penalised at all is unconstitutional.

Article 19 of the national constitution states that, “the private actions of men which in no way offend public order or morality, nor injure a third party, are for God alone, and outside the competence of judges”.

In a landmark ruling in 2009, judges from the highest Argentine court ruled that penalising possession of drugs for personal and private use is unconstitutional; they also urged congress to reform the drugs law.

There are also a number of technical legal issues when it comes to the possession and consumption of marijuana, explained Sebastian Basolo, editor of THC magazine, during a public debate held in the University of Buenos Aires (UBA), on 31st May.

Basolo argued that consumption is an “abstract crime”, which could only potentially lead to harm. Meanwhile, someone caught with a large quantity of marijuana is required to prove that it is for personal use, as opposed to the police having to prove that it is intended to be sold.

Victoria Donda Peréz talks at the open debate held at UBA (Photo: Beatrice Murch)

The wrong fight

According to Victoria Donda Peréz, by targeting small consumers, the current drugs law misdirects the security forces in the fight against drug trafficking. It also creates an unnecessary burden for law enforcement agencies, the courts, and the prison system.

“Out of approximately 17,000 [drugs-related] cases which occur each year, 70% relate to personal use, 3% relate to trade, and the rest are the cases where the individual cannot prove that it is for personal use and the state cannot prove that it is for trade”, she explained in the UBA debate.

Though the majority of these cases lead only to a fine, 70% of current female prisoners have been imprisoned for drug-related charges. The average length of time to process a typical drug charge is 25 months, compared to 20 months for more violent crimes.

Fernanda Reyes, a member of congress from the Coalición Cívica party, has publicly stated, “the penalisation of consumption is not a way to combat drug trafficking, nor is it a way to resolve the social problems related to addiction”.

Supporters of the new proposals claim that a relaxation of the drug law would allow police and judiciary resources to be channeled into a more effective pursuit of the large-scale drug traffickers.

Marcelo Saín, former head of the airport security police, says that the police “have never brought down a big drug cartel by using a consumer as the stepping stone, processing him for possession for personal use. Not here, nor anywhere else in the world.”

Saín’s comments come at a time when the current approach to drug control around the world is coming increasingly under question.

In 1998, the UN told its member states that it wanted the world to be drug-free by 2008. Yet drug use actually increased throughout the ten year period, while drug cartels gained power and increased their violence.

Last week the Global Commission on Drug Policy, a group of politicians and former world leaders, declared that the global war on drugs, which costs taxpayers around the world millions, has failed, fuelling organised crime and causing thousands of deaths.

The report says, “political leaders and public figures should have the courage to articulate publicly what many of them acknowledge privately: that the evidence overwhelmingly demonstrates that repressive strategies will not solve the drug problem, and that the war on drugs has not, and cannot, be won.” The report urges governments to cease punishing users “who do no harm to others” and to instead undermine the organised crime syndicates.

The editor of THC, Sebastian Basolo, makes a point at the debate at UBA (Photo: Beatrice Murch)

These criminal organisations are also sometimes able to influence those charged with bringing them down. In an article written for THC, Saín talks about his experience working in Argentina, saying “the police force is the largest member of the drug trafficking world and at the same time the enforcement authority. Therefore, what it does is regulate the illegal drug market. They choose to penalise the consumers, like they choose who can sell and who can not.”

Despite saying that police force has corruption entrenched in its practices, Saín does believe that by taking consumers out of the picture, this corruption would become more obvious.

Would decriminalisation really benefit society?

Opponents of the decriminalisation project are concerned that it will encourage damaging drug use, arguing that if the state allows people to harm themselves and others around them, it is not fulfilling its primary function of protecting its citizens.

In a press statement Claudio Izaguirre, head of the Antidrugs Association of Argentina, says: “we stress that marijuana is a drug, the most difficult to quit, and that the latest international studies suggest that it produces schizofrenia and severe brain damage. In this context, leaving the drug within reach of people, with the authorisation of the national legislative power, means that the congressmen and senators who vote in favour of the application will be responsible for the negative consequences.”

However, numerous studies, such as the recent one conducted by the Global Commission on Drug Policy, have been carried out in countries where the laws have been relaxed and nearly all of them agree that this is not the case. In fact, findings suggest that drug use in general goes down after decriminalisation.

Two women vehemently debate at the Global Marijana March in front of Congress (Photo: Beatrice Murch)

Yet anti-decriminalisation campaigners argue that young people in particular will be vulnerable. Alfredo Olmedo, leader of the Salta Somos Todos party group, says “the drug is destroying the home” and that “if you allow anything, you are going to kill young boys”.

There are also concerns that by decriminalising marijuana, young people will receive mixed messages about drugs. Isabel Vázquez, founder of Mothers Against Paco (a devastating drug made of the residue from the cocaine purification process), is adamant that any project such as this requires education of young people, saying, “everything is to do with love, with our responsibility as adults to be the guide that our kids need”.

Izaguirre agrees, saying that if possession is decriminalised, “the drug dealer will place himself on our children’s school corner with the necessary legal protection, given by members of the national congress, converting the elected people into participants of this abhorrent crime, which destroys our youth in particular and society in general”.

Supporters of the movement are keen to ensure that the decriminalisation of private consumption is complimented by a crackdown on those involved in the drug trade. Liliana Parada, of the Proyecto Sur party, says “the decision to stop criminalising the consumers should be directly linked to the intention of the state to pursue those who have the power to deal drugs. The judges, prosecutors and security forces should advocate the prosecution of organised crime.”

Home-grown marijuana on a terrace in Buenos Aires (Photo: Beatrice Murch)

Those backing the new proposal also point out that decriminalising the growth of plants at home for personal use will discourage people from buying from dealers. Congressman Remo Carlotto says: “we know and there is scientific proof, that it is much better for the whole of society that those who consume marijuana do not consume rubbish from drug dealers, but instead they consume the product which they themselves grow.”

Meanwhile Donda Peréz stresses that a relaxation of the law is not the same as legalising drugs: “You can choose between one month and two years in prison, or medical treatment. If for any reason you cannot receive or complete this treatment, you go to prison.”

She adds that there should be more support for addicts and consumers who are forced into rehabilitation programs.

The decriminalisation project is running alongside a couple of projects instigated by Leonardo Gorbacz, a former congressman; the Mental Health Law and the Federal Plan for Public Assistance of Addicitions. Gorbacz states that “it is fundamental to consider the assistance as a right and not as an obligation of the people that have some kind of problem with consumption.”

What comes next?

It is a controversial issue to be discussing during an election year, but the project’s leaders remain optimistic about success. As with all projects submitted to congress, the issue will remain on the table for two years, which means that it will still be possible to pass after the October ballot.

Donda Peréz and Basolo are promoting their project widely. Public debates have been held in universities across Buenos Aires, as well as live television debates with critics such as Izaguirre. A march in support of the movement united thousands of consumers outside the congress building on 7th May, raising awareness of the campaign. The issue has now become a popular topic of discussion around the country, which is exactly what Donda Peréz wants.

Same-sex marriage was recently legalised in Argentina after polemic debates, and she points out that “this shows that discussing some things amongst society can create conditions for this type of law to be approved”.