Two men have been arrested for the shootings on Saturday where at least two members of the opposition were killed in Barinas during a campaign for opposition leader Henrique Capriles. President Hugo Chávez has condemned the killings and has begged people to avoid violence.

Chávez yesterday commented on the incident in a public speech saying that “we need to be very sorry for the deaths of these two people”, begging his sympathisers to “avoid falling into violent provocations” during election time. He further announced that “violence is not the right way to face the elections”, and pointed out that “what matters are the votes, the ideas and peace”.

On the same day, deputy of the opposition Julio Borges confirmed that a third person was killed in the incident.

On Sunday, before knowing about the third victim, Interior Minister Tareck El Aisami confirmed the capture of the “perpetrators of the double murder” on his Twitter account. He said in an interview with national TV channel Venezolana de Televisión (VTV) that “we are not asking for impunity, what we want is justice”.

Borges claimed that the accused men were employees of The Ministry of Environment and of the Barinas regional police force. However, president of The National Assembly, Diosdado Cabello, denied that the detained suspects are linked to any official organisations and deemed “irresponsible” those launching such accusations “without waiting for investigations”.

In his last speech of the campaign rally Capriles addressed the deaths as a symbol for the violence issues the country has since long suffered from: “I want to tell their families, and those angels in heaven, that we are going to defeat violence on the 7th of October.”

 

 

 

The Mexican Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) has announced that the final district count confirmed that Enrique Peña Nieto won last Sunday’s presidential elections.

Peña Nieto represents the Compromiso por México, a coalition composed of the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) and the Partido Verde Ecologista de México (PVEM).

The final district count shows Peña Nieto winning the election with 38.21% of votes, Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the leftist PRD coming in second with 31.59% of votes, and Josefina Vásquez Mota of the incumbent PAN party coming in third with 25.41% of the votes.

The district count began Wednesday morning and took four days in total.

Today’s confirmation of the voting figures does not yet cement Peña Nieto’s win. Now that the Federal Electoral Institute has finalized their count, they have passed the determination of the election on the Electoral Tribunal (TEPJF).

The Electoral Tribunal is charged with investigating any challenges that may be presented to the vote. Their final confirmation is required to validate the election.

Accordingly, Peña Nieto cannot legally be called ‘president elect’ until the Tribunal has released its verdict.

The investigation process could take as long as two months. Opposition candidates now have four days when they can present their complaints to the Electoral Tribunal, which then has until 31stAugust to investigate allegations. The final verdict is expected on 6th September.

Opposition candidates have accused Peña Nieto’s coalition of buying votes in the election, a practice that the PRI party was notorious for during its seventy years of autocratic rule in the previous century.

The leftist PRD party has argued that as many as five million votes may have been bought. According to the numbers released today from the IFE, Peña Nieto garnered 19.1 million votes, while López Obrador received 15 million.

The PRD has accused Peña Nieto’s coalition of giving out cards to popular shopping centre Soriana and pre-paid cards from financial group Monex. López Obrador’s leftist opposition has also accused Peña Nieto’s coalition of exceeding the 30 million-peso campaign-spending cap.

The incumbent PAN party has also pointed to irregularities during the election, but candidate Vásquez Mota conceded defeat shortly after the polls closed last Sunday.

The PRD is now asking the PAN to join forces in voicing their complaints about alleged irregularities in the electoral process. Today, director of the PRD Jesús Zambrano announced that he and his PAN counterpart Gustavo Madero are in the process of organizing a meeting to discuss possible collaboration. The PRD is particularly interested in the parties’ sharing information that they have about the PRI’s finances.

Yesterday, thousands of Mexican citizens marched in protest of Peña Nieto’s win and of alleged irregularities in the electoral process. Major marches took place in Mexico City and in at least nine other states across the country.

A significant proportion of the demonstrators are students, many of them members of the ‘#YoSoy132’ movement that emerged during this year’s elections. The protest is one of several that have taken place in the week following the election, with the demonstrators turning out as early as last Monday.

On Sunday the 1st of June, presidential candidates for Venezuela’s October election officially began campaigning.

The two main candidates are incumbent president Hugo Chávez, currently serving his second term, and opposition candidate Henrique Capriles.

Five other candidates are currently vying for the office: María Bolívar, Luis Reyes, Yoel Acosta Chirinos, Orlando Chirinos, and Reina Sequera.

Chávez launched his campaign yesterday with an 18-kilometer caravan from the city of Mariara to the city of Maracay; both cities are located in the central state of Carabobo. Tens of thousands of supporters turned out dressed in red, the color associated with Chávez’s so-called ‘Bolivarian revolution’.

Chávez, 57, has been largely absent from the public eye because of his battle with cancer; the president has undergone three operations in the last year in an effort to remove two malignant tumors. Recently, however, he has come out to assure supporters that he is recovered and ready for the upcoming campaign.

If he wins, he could stand to hold the presidency for twenty consecutive years.

Launching the official campaign, the president called in particular for his followers to help “convince the undecided”.

Capriles, who states that his “commitment is to reach the most forgotten people”, elected to begin his campaign in the border regions. He first visited the state of Bolívar, near the border with Brazil, and then the state of Zulia, near the border with Colombia.

The 39-year-old former governor of the state of Miranda stated “today we have been in the most beautiful places, but also the most forgotten. Two forgotten populations, ignored by and invisible to a government that swore to attend to the poorest”.

Earlier in June, when Capriles officially declared his candidacy in the National Electoral Council, thousands of supporters marched to support the candidate.

Centre-left Capriles stands for free market economics with social programs; the candidate has spoken positively of Brazil’s government structure.

Chávez’s proposed plan, presented to the National Electoral Council (CNE) on the 11th of June, is structured on five points and centered on continuing state socialism. The president and state-media typically class Capriles as ‘rightist’.

At present, Chávez is showing a double figure lead in most polls. Over a quarter of the 18.9 million voters, however, still identify as undecided and his advantage is less pronounced than it has been in former campaigns.

Media use by presidential candidates is highly regulated by the National Electoral Council (CNE). Candidates have a daily allowance of three minutes of television advertising, four minutes of radio, a half page in standard newspaper and a full page in the tabloid news per day.

The government radio and television stations, however, are not included in the regulations, and so may be used by Chávez without restriction. Government news sources often criticize Capriles.

Controversy recently arose when Globovision, a Venezuelan news channel, was fined for its coverage of a prison riot last year in which over 20 people were killed. Globovision is often critical of the government, and Chavez has accused the channel of supporting a coup attempt in 2002.

Globalvision challenged the $2.1 fine in court, and holds that the fine was an attempt to intimidate the channel in the face of the upcoming elections. Capriles also claims that the fine was an attempt to stifle independent media outlets.

The presidential election will be held on the 7th of October this year, with campaigns closing on the 4th of October.

With just over 90% of results showing, Enrique Peña Nieto of the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) is leading in the Mexican presidential race with a six-point majority.

Peña Nieto has declared his win and been congratulated by current President Felipe Calderón, but opposition candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador has not yet conceded defeat. The governments of the United Kingdom and Spain have also both congratulated Peña Nieto on his win.

As of early this afternoon, Peña Nieto was winning with 37.9% of the vote, with López Obrador coming in second with 31.9% of the vote. The third candidate, Josefina Vásquez Mota, has conceded defeat and is showing 25.5% of the vote.

Former governor of the state of Mexico, Peña Nieto represents the PRI, which ruled Mexico for the majority of the twentieth century.

Founded as the Partido Nacional Revolucionario (PNR) in 1929, the PRI –whose name was changed in 1946 – ruled Mexico through to 2000. The PRI has spent 12 years in the opposition under the governments of former President Vicente Fox (2000 – 2006) and current President Calderón (2006 – present), both members of the Partidio Acción Nacional (PAN).

In this election, PRI had formed a coalition with the Partido Verde Ecologista de México (PVEM).

During its 70-year rule, PRI was notorious for its autocratic governing style, with a history smattered with corruption and patronage. The party was also said to have connections to drug gangs within the country.

López Obrador represents the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD), a centre-left party. López Obrador declared that he would “wait until we …all of the results”. In the 2006 election, López Obrador was runner-up to current President Calderón. He refused to accept defeat for 48 days and repeatedly called for a recount.

Vásquez Mota, who trailed in the polls, represented the incumbent PAN party. Mexican presidents are only allowed to serve a single six-year term, disqualifying both former PAN presidents Fox and Calderon from seeking re-election.

Leading issues for Mexican voters this year were the drug war and the economy.

The war on drugs was initiated by President Calderón; in the six years that he has been in power, over 55,000 people have been killed in drug-related violence. In campaigning, Peña Nieto focused more on combating this violence against Mexicans than on cracking down on drug cartels and their activities.

The economy was a large focus of Peña Nieto’s campaign. Although Calderón’s presidency has seen economic growth, large inequalities persist in the country, where nearly half of the population lives in poverty.

Peña Nieto’s proposed plans have focused on generating jobs, raising wages and lowering food prices. He has also called for opening national oil company Pemex to private investment and pursuing energy reform.

Over 80 million Mexicans were eligible to vote in the elections this past Sunday, and preliminary statistics from the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) show about 62% participation, a 2% rise from 2006.

Despite fears that drug cartels would attempt to intimidate voters, reports suggest that the elections were peaceful.There have been complaints, however, of polling stations closing early and some polling stations running out of ballots, as well as allegations of vote buying.

While Peña Nieto declared the vote indicates that the Mexican people have granted the PRI a “second opportunity”, support for the party appears to be lower than pre-election polls suggested, with over 60% of voters choosing an alternative candidate.

Still, the coalition formed by PRI and PVEM is expected to come out of the elections with a simple majority in both houses of congress; if so, it would be the first time that a party has held both the presidency and a congressional majority since the PRI lost its congressional majority in 1997.

Peña Nieto’s PRI will also govern a majority of Mexican states, although the federal district of Mexican city will be governed by a leftist coalition that includes the López Obrador’s PRD.

The PRI began to celebrate its victory Sunday night after polls closed. Peña Nieto celebrated with his wife, television actress Angélica Rivera, and the couple’s six children.

The inauguration of the next president will be held in December.

If Venezuelans went to the polls today, more people would vote for Henrique Capriles Radonski than for current President Hugo Chavez, a poll conducted by Sevi Mercado revealed yesterday.

Despite Chavez’s recent joke about the possibility that the opposition will make a come back and govern the country – saying it will happen the day the famous fictional character Tarzan appears in Caracas main square along with his ape mate – the poll shows that he is still two points behind his main electoral contender, who is favoured by 36% of the population.

Voters’ turnout is also expected to hit a record high at the next round of elections, scheduled for October 7th. “A lot of Venezuelan people feared to respond in the poll, but will hit the streets to vote,” said Luis Garcia Planchard, director of Servi Mercado.

The research carried out by Sevi Mercado asked whom voters would prefer “if the election were held tomorrow.”

Many Venezuelan commentators have been struck by how close the margin is between the two candidates.

The so-called anti-Chavez candidate secured 36.67% approval rating, against Chavez’s 34%. A quarter of the interviewees said they are still undecided, while 21% preferred not to answer. However, the Venezuelan president is in the lead in other polling institutions, according to Infobae.

“It is important to know that within this scenario, and compared with other surveys, the results are very similar,” Garcia Planchard said. “This is a draw by any means.”

According to Planchard, the gender factor will play a decisive role, as Venezuelan women are more likely to vote for Capriles Radonski than President Chavez.

Saturday Leopoldo López announced his plans for candidacy in the presidential elections in Venezuela in 2012. This decision comes a week after the Inter-American Court of Human Rights ordered Venezuela to suspend the ban that prevented López from holding office by popular election.

On Saturday López affirmed, “Today I say to Venezuela (Chávez) that I have the firm intention of defeating him in the electoral vote on 7th October, 2012.”

Chávez and his cabinet criticised the Court and said they are “encouraging” corruption with a motivated “political” decision.

López, who was mayor of a district in Caracas, was banned in 2005 from running for office after being accused of corruption. He has always denied the charges and claims he was never tried in the Venezuelan courts.

The candidate stressed that his opponents in the primaries had an “extraordinary relationship” and “work well together as a team” to defeat Chávez.

The president, who has been in power for twelve years, has nearly 50% popularity among Venezuelans.

Argentina’s first primary elections took place last Sunday, selecting the candidates that will represent their respective parties in the presidential elections on 23rd October. Incumbent President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner took a clear lead with 50.06% of the votes – 38 points ahead of her nearest rival. After winning in every province except San Luis, President Fernández looks set to win another term in office.

The battle for second place resulted in a tie between Ricardo Alfonsín and Eduardo Duhalde, who both reached 12% of the votes. The governor of Santa Fe, socialist Hermes Binner, was fourth with an impressive 10% in his party’s first presidential campaign. Further back, Alberto Rodriguez Saá – who triumphed in San Luis – Elisa Carrió, and Jorge Altamira also crossed the 1.5% threshold, and are official candidates for the national election.

The primary election had a remarkably high voter turnout, with 77% participation. The elections took place without major incident, although there were claims of ballot theft in several key districts such as the capital and greater Buenos Aires, Córdoba and Santa Fe.

With the presidential ballot now just over two months away, The Argentina Independent gives you a run down of the seven successful candidates and their parties.

Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (Frente para la Victoria) – 50.06% (of the vote in the primaries)

Cristina Elizabet Fernández de Kirchner, born 19th February 1953, is the incumbent president of Argentina. She announced her candidacy for re-election at the Casa Rosada in June 2011.

President Fernández was a Senator for Buenos Aires Province prior to taking office in 2007, representing the ruling ‘Frente para la Victoria’ (FPV), after winning the general election with 45.3% of the vote. She is Argentina’s first elected female president, and the wife of former president of Argentina, Néstor Kirchner.

The FPV is a social democratic faction of the Peronist party, founded in 2003, when Néstor Kirchner ran for president. After eight years in power, the party’s policy approach is commonly referred to as kirchnerismo.

President Fernández announced that during a second term she intends to deepen the kirchnerismo ‘model’, which is based on the principles of defending human rights and redistributing wealth.

Whilst in government, the Kirchners have focused on bringing to justice those who committed crimes against humanity during the last dictatorship (1976-83). In the wake of the 2001 economic crisis, the FPV declared itself against neoliberal policies and rejected free-trade agreements in order strengthen relations with other leftist countries in Latin America, such as Venezuela, Ecuador, Cuba and Bolivia. Though President Fernández’ political orientation is considered centre-left, she recently announced that she will remain supportive of the illegality of abortion in Argentina.

In a difficult first term for President Fernández the main flashpoints were the reform of the media law in 2009 and the campo crisis of 2008. A new version of the country’s media law was sanctioned in 2009, aiming to break up the oligopolies that have long existed in the Argentine media industry. However, the bill was slammed by some media groups as an attempt to silence voices critical of the government. Various media organisations started opposing the government during the so-called ‘campo crisis’ of 2008. The president introduced a new sliding-scale taxation system for agricultural exports, especially soy. This was rejected by farming associations, who went on strike and blocked national highways for months, until the measure was eventually rejected by Vice President Julio Cobos – a Radical – in the Senate.

This time, President Fernández has selected close ally, and economy minister, Amado Boudou, as her running mate.

Ricardo Alfonsín (Unión para el Desarrollo Social) – 12.17%

Ricardo Luis Alfonsín, born 2nd November 1951, is the presidential candidate of the ‘Unión Cívica Radical‘ (UCR). Alfonsín is an Argentine lawyer, academic and politician. He is the son of former president Raúl Alfonsín, who held office from 1983 to 1989.

The ‘Unión para el Desarrollo Social’ is a new alliance within the UCR, which Alfonsín will lead during the presidential elections. Founded in 1891, the UCR is the oldest political party active in Argentina.

For the presidential elections, Alfonsín made a surprising alliance with conservative Peronist and ex-rival Francisco de Narváez of the ‘Union Celeste y Blanco’. De Narváez, currently a national deputy for Buenos Aires Province, had previously aligned himself with the centre-right and conservative mayor of Buenos Aires City, Maurico Macri.

Alfonsín, meanwhile, initially planned to align himself with a socialist partner, to create a national progressive front. Moreover, during the 2009 legislative election, a key feature of Alfonsín’s campaign was his confrontation with De Narváez. For the elections in October, however, they have developed a common platform and united their list of candidates.

Alfonsín’s policy platform focuses on eradicating poverty, reducing inflation, promoting education and sustainable development, and tackling crime. Broad proposals include the reduction of inflation to less than 10% within three years, without negatively affecting economic activity, as well as guaranteeing a minimum level of welfare for children and adolescents, pregnant women, people with disabilities, and retirees.

Eduardo Duhalde (Frente Popular) – 12.16%

Eduardo Alberto Duhalde, born 5th October 1941, is the candidate for the federal Peronist party ‘Frente Popular’. He was president of Argentina from January 2002 to May 2003, appointed by Congress as a consequence of the chaos caused by the economic crisis in 2001-02. His first major decision was to exit the currency peg with the US dollar, leading to a sharp devaluation of the peso. After overseeing a turbulent period, he called early elections in 2003, which were won by Néstor Kirchner.

The ‘Frente Popular’ is related to the ‘Unión Popular’, founded in 1955 by Juan Atilio Bramuglia, Minister of Foreign Affairs during the administration of Juan Domingo Perón. Its original purpose was to serve as an alternative to the Peronist party, which was banned after a military coup had forced Perón into exile.

Duhalde’s 2011 campaign emphasises security issues and the establishment of federalism. It calls for the restoration of authority and peace, construction of modern progressivism, crime and drug prevention, compliance with human rights, and the creation of an ownership society based on the principles of personal responsibility, economic liberty, and the owning of property.

Duhalde’s candidate for the vice presidency is Mario Das Neves, the outspoken governor of Chubut province who has been harsh in his criticism of the Kirchners in recent years.

Hermes Binner (Frente Amplio Progresista) – 10.27%

Hermes Juan Binner, born 5th June 1943, is an Argentine medical doctor and politician. In 2007, he was elected the first socialist governor in the history of Argentina, in the province of Santa Fe.

His presidential candidacy is represented by the ‘Frente Amplio Progresista’ party, which was founded and first introduced in June 2011. Several groups of the “democratic left” of Argentina belong to the ‘Frente’: Partido Socialista, Generación para un Encuentro Nacional, Movimiento Libres del Sur and Corriente Nacional por la Unidad Popular, among others.

Binner’s campaign focuses on social issues, such a health, education, employment, housing and climate change. His proposals include the integration of the entire production process of Argentina’s prime materials to increase employment, the promise of a dignified income for all retirees, and more long-term thinking into the country’s environmental policies.

Binner has also pledged to reduce the discrepancies in public education and healthcare found across different provinces. He furthermore encourages the acquisition of social housing via low tax rates and direct loans.

Alberto José Rodríguez Saá (Frente Compromiso Federal) – 8.17%

Alberto José Rodriguez Saá, born 21st August 1949, is the candidate of the ‘Frente Compromiso Federal’ party for the presidential elections. Saá is an Argentine lawyer and politician. In 2003 he was elected as governor of San Luis province, where he remains popular today.

The main thrust of Saá’s electoral campaign is to apply the “San Luis model” nationwide. San Luis has one of Argentina’s most stable and strong economies, with continuous full employment since 2003 and comparably low poverty rates.

The ‘Frente Compromiso Federal’ is a new coalition formed by Saá. He united the liberal ‘Peronismo Federal’ party with the Partido Demócrata, Partido Verde, Partido Política Abierta para la Integridad Social (PAIS) and others.

Saá’s political proposal focuses on the development of a social state with a free and competitive economy. Active policies in infrastructure are planned that favour a strong economy with high wages and full employment. He promised to increase government spending in the education and health sector.

Furthermore, the proposal suggests a drastic alteration of the current taxation system, with a lower VAT and a looser taxation scheme for the farming industry. Noting that San Luis has almost 40% of Argentina’s highways in its province, Saá has promised to invest heavily in the construction of highways and harbours nationwide to support economic activity.

Though the model of San Luis is considered a success, critics question the applicability of the very liberal model at a national level.

Elisa Carrió (Coalición Cívica) – 3.24%

Elisa María Avelina Carrió, born 26th December 1956, is an Argentine politician and founder and head of the executive board of the ‘Coalición Cívica’.

Carrió was deputy for the province of Chaco from 1995-99 and was re-elected for a second term from 1999-2003. As candidate of the newly created ‘Coalición Cívica ARI’, Carrió was the first female presidential candidate in 2003. In October 2005, she was elected to Congress as National Deputy for the City of Buenos Aires.

The ‘Coalición Cívica’ is part of the ‘Coalición Cívica ARI’, founded in 2002. It includes parties from different ideologies, such as the Unión por Todos (UpT), el movimiento FORJA, and el movimiento Radicales en la Coalición.

The main principles advertised by the ‘Coalición Cívica’ are ethics and income distribution. The campaign emphasises the fight against bureaucracy and corruption, and promotes absolute transparency in government. Other policy proposals discuss general national concerns, such as education, health and employment.

However, the campaign lacked concrete ideas, and after finishing second in the 2007 presidential election, this primaries result was a huge blow for Carrió and the party.

Jorge Altamira (Frente de Izquierda y los Trabajadores) – 2.48%

69-year-old José Saúl Wermus, better known as Jorge Altamira, is an Argentine politician and candidate of the left-wing labour party ‘Frente de Izquierda y los Trabajadores’.

As founding member and prominent leader of the Labour Party, Altamira has run for president of the nation and national deputy several times. He was elected legislator of the City of Buenos Aires from 2000-04.

The ‘Frente de Izquierda y los Trabajadores‘ is an electoral alliance formed by the Partido Obrero, the Partido de los Trabajadores Socialistas, the Izquierda Socialista, and other minor leftist parties.

Altamira’s political manifesto focuses on concrete issues within the social, human rights and economic fields: it suggests a minimum wage of $5,000 and continuous skill enhancement by employers to end unemployment. It focuses on nationalisation of the industry and proposes non-payment of the external debt. With respect to human rights, it explicitly calls for the punishment of the perpetrators that were involved in the killing of 23-year-old activist Mariano Ferreyra in October 2010. The proposal furthermore suggests the expulsion of imperialism from all countries and supports the establishment of a socialist union in Latin America.

His running mate for the presidential elections will be Christian Castillo, university lecturer and leader of the Socialist Workers Party.

Last Tuesday, as Venezuela celebrated 200 years of independence, all eyes were on President Hugo Chávez. A day earlier, the visibly-thinner Venezuelan president returned home unexpectedly after his announcement that he was being treated for a cancerous tumor.

“No one should think that my presence here today means that we have won the battle,” he proclaimed to thousands of supporters in the Venezuelan capital, Caracas. “We have just started to defeat the ill that, for who knows what reasons, incubated itself in me.”

The news that Venezuela’s president of twelve years was suffering from cancer followed more than three weeks of near silence from the administration, during which time Chávez was interned in a Cuban hospital. An initial operation to cure what officials termed a “pelvic abscess” was followed by more extensive surgery ten days later.

After rumours and speculation about his illness, Chávez finally revealed in a television address on 30th June that he had received surgery to remove cancerous cells. He called his failure to have frequent medical checkups a “fundamental mistake, and more so for a revolutionary with some modest responsibilities like the revolution that has been in process for more than thirty years.”

Although some medical experts have suggested that he might be suffering from colon cancer, Chávez has not given any indication of the type of cancer, nor whether he is receiving chemotherapy. On Saturday Vice President Elías Jaua was no more specific, reporting that the president was in a “a delicate process” that involved “rigorous treatment.”

Chávez, who wanted to return to Venezuela in time for the country’s bicentennial, was unable to attend the celebrations, and instead gave a televised speech from the presidential palace, making his presence known via twitter. “What pride to be a soldier of the people of Simón Bolívar!” the president tweeted to his 1.7 million followers that day, referring to the 19th century liberator after whom his Bolivarian Revolution movement is named.

Chavismo without Chávez?

Should Chávez’s health worsen, it is far from clear whether his form of government can be sustained. Chávez has maintained a personality-based leadership style, becoming a very visible figurehead of what he himself terms a ’21st century socialist revolution’. He has hinted that he intends to remain president until 2021, and took one step toward that goal in February 2009 when he won a referendum ending presidential term limits.

According to Jorge Beinstein, professor of Latin American economics at the University of Buenos Aires (UBA) and an expert on the Venezuelan economic model,“the image of chavismo remains,” with or without Chávez. There are many versions of chavismo, says Beinstein, just like in Argentina after Perón was exiled, there were “Peronists on the left, peronists on the right, fascist peronists, Marxist peronists, a bit of everything.” But the difference, according to Beinstein, is that where Perón had a network of powerful unions, Chávez lacks a political apparatus that institutionalises his form of government independently of his rule.

If Chávez’ illness were to render him unfit to govern, “we’re likely to see a very messy jockeying for a position” suspects Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington D.C.-based think tank. The field is wide open for possible successors, from the vice president Elías Jaua, to Chávez’s brother Adán.

Another frequently mentioned possibility is the foreign minister, Nicolás Maduro, who has been the face of chavismo internationally since 2006. As UBA professor of Latin American Politics, Mario Toer explains, Maduro “is the cabinet member who has had the most visibility, but this is far from implying a leadership that would be recognized a priori.”

Jorge Rodríguez, former vice-president and current mayor of Caracas’ Alcaldia Libertador municipality, is also a potential successor, as is Rafael Ramírez, the minister of energy and oil and the head of the state-run Petroleum of Venezuela (PDVSA). Diosdado Cabello, another former vice-president, could also make an attempt to take power. Cabello took part in the 1992 coup attempt led by Chávez while he was an army officer, and as vice-president when Chávez was briefly ousted in 2002, he took power until Chávez returned.

For his part, Chávez has made no indication of plans to name a successor. On Thursday he denied rumors that he was in the process of a cabinet reshuffle that included replacing his vice president, and confirmed that the current team would remain the same. A government press release on Monday reported Chávez has “experienced a rapid recovery from the complex operation.”

A Blow to Popularity?

For now, Chávez appears keen to hold on to the presidency, and is still poised to run for re-election in December of 2012. In the meantime, it is still unclear what effect Chavéz’s cancer will have on his political support. A June 6th poll taken before Chavéz was hospitalized in Cuba shows an almost even division between those who support his administration and those who are against it.

Professor Beinstein cautions against assuming that Chavez’s illness will be unfavorable in terms of elections. The “immediate psychological effects,” might actually lead people to “sympathise” and give their support, says Beinstein, who has made frequent trips to Venezuela for over thirty years.

Regardless of what effect his illness has, Chavez already faced additional problems at home and a tough battle for re-election. At nearly 25%, Venezuela’s inflation rate is the highest in Latin America. And just three weeks ago, while Chávez received treatment in Cuba, clashes erupted between rival gangs at the El Rodeo prison complex just outside of Caracas, leaving over 20 people dead. Venezuelan cities have also suffered frequent energy blackouts, despite the wealth of energy resources in the country.

Still, Chávez remains a powerful figure, and enjoys widespread support among Venezuela’s poor. His “Bolivarian Missions” addressing among other issues healthcare, illiteracy, and sanitation have helped to cut the poverty rate nearly in half during his time in office, and have significantly lowered the infant mortality rate. He has also passed laws protecting indigenous communities, and has supported the creation of over 100,000 workers’ cooperatives.

Wind in the Opposition’s Sails?

Yet Chávez’s illness has provided new momentum for the opposition. Though traditionally at odds with one another, they are now allied as the Democratic Unified Panel (MUD). However, Professor Toer doubts the possibility “that the opposition would be able to join together in a unified government.”

In February MUD will hold an open primary, and contenders include Governor Henrique Capriles Radonski and the mayor of Caracas, Antonio Ledezma. The young, charismatic opposition leader, Leopoldo Lopez, is currently out of the running because of being found guilty of corruption by Chávez’s comptroller general.

Despite the opportunity that Chávez’s announcement gives the opposition, leaders have treaded lightly on the subject so far. “We’re not going to make Chávez’s illness the center of our discussion” Capriles announced to reporters last week, affirming, “Venezuela’s problems don’t have to do with the health of the president.” Still, Yon Goicoechea, a young opposition leader told local paper, Venezolanos en Linea, that Chávez has now lost his aura of invincibility: “Have you ever seen Superman sick?”

A Latin America Without Chávez?

Hugo Chávez has been a driving – if polarising – force in efforts to unite Latin America as an independent and leftist region, capable of standing up to external influence and pressure from the West. Michael Shifter argues that Chávez’s assertion of “independence and sovereignty” in the face of the U.S. and his open “defiance of [President] Bush” have generated “support and enthusiasm in many parts of the world, including Argentina” and the rest of Latin America. Without Chávez, the power balance in Latin America could shift again.

Arguably the country with the most to lose if Chávez goes is Cuba. Hugo Chávez’s close relationship with Fidel Castro (who he’s often described as “like a father to me”) has left many in Cuba apprehensive about what might happen should Chávez leave power.

Cuba could potentially lose a lot more than a friendship if Chávez goes. In exchange for skilled Cuban workers, Venezuela subsidizes Cuba to the tune of US$3.5bn a year, and sends an estimated 115,000 barrels of oil a day, which amounts to two thirds of the country’s total consumption.

Cuban blogger Yoani Sanchez writes, “In recent weeks the island hierarchy has felt, once again, the vertigo of the abyss into which we sunk following the dismemberment of the Soviet Union, and it intuits that it could not survive the loss of another powerful ally.”

But UBA Professor Jorge Beinstein says the “situation is not as bad” as in 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed. At the time, Cuba was reliant on selling sugar to the Soviet Union, but now, according to Beinstein, enjoys a more diversified economy, and better relationships with other countries in Latin America.

Despite the uncertainty over what kind of political scenario Chávez’s absence would create, Professor Beinstein is sure of one thing: “the death of Chávez does not imply a simple return to the pre-Chávez Venezuela of 1990.”

Without Chávez, his political presence, for better or worse, looks set remain.

To find out what Buenos Aires residents think of President Chávez and the impact his illness might have, click here.

“Let’s put ourselves to the vote one more time, just like we always did.” With these words, incumbent president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, announced her candidacy for re-election last Tuesday in the Casa Rosada.

During her speech President Fernández thanked the public for its support when her husband and former president, Néstor Kirchner, died on the 27th October 2010. Huge crowds attended an open wake at the Casa Rosada the following day, demonstrating their support for the current president.

“I want to clarify that I always knew what I had to do and what I will do. I knew it on the 28th October. I knew it when thousands and thousands came to say goodbye one last time and shouted ‘strength to Cristina’.”

During her announcement, President Fernández also sent a message to Argentina’s youth: “I will commit myself to the young people who expect so much of this new country. I hope to be a bridge between new and old generations to build an Argentina that we all want to live in.”

According to Hebe de Bonafini, leader of the Madres de Plaza de Mayo, President Fernández de Kirchner finds a strong support group in the young generation. ”It was the young generation that went out on the streets after the death of Néstor to give her strength,” Bonafini declared on the Radio de las Madres. “The youth helped the president decide to carry on and take the lead.”

Clear Favourite

President Fernández de Kirchner won the 2007 presidential elections with 45.3% of the vote, becoming the first women to ever be democratically elected in Argentina.

According to different surveys, around 40% to 46% of Argentines will vote for the incumbent at the elections on 23rd October 2011. This could be enough to win another term in Argentina, where a minimum of 45% of the vote is required in order to win elections in the first round. When reaching a minimum of 40%, a 10% difference to the next candidate is needed in order to win outright, otherwise the top two will enter a second round run-off.

At present, President Fernández de Kirchner’s two closest rivals are Eduardo Alberto Duhalde and Luis Ricardo Alfonsín – both familiar figures to the argentine population. Duhalde, of the peronist party Frente Popular, was president of Argentina from January 2002 to May 2003. He was announced president by Congress as a consequence of the chaos caused by the economic crisis in 2001-2002 and called early elections in 2003, which were won by Néstor Kirchner. Alfonsín, the candidate of the Radical Civic Union, is the son of former president Raúl Alfonsín, who took on the presidency after the last dictatorship in Argentina in 1983. Opinion polls suggest that neither candidate will win more than 25% of the vote.

Deepening the Model

The Kirchners belong to the peronist Frente Para La Victoria (FPV) party. During her first term, the president has continued with the political and economic model that her husband began to implement from 2003. And while announcing her candidacy for re-election, the president stated that during a second term she intends to deepen this model, which is based on the principals of defending human rights and redistributing wealth.

However, some of President Fernández de Kirchner’s policies so far have been heavily criticised in the mainstream media. A new version of the country’s media law, sanctioned by Congress in 2009, aims to break up the oligopolies that have long existed in the Argentine media sector. Supporters of the new law, which replaces one that had existed since the military dictatorship, called it a long overdue democratisation of the media that will encourage plurality of opinion. However, the bill was slammed by the opposition as an attempt to silence voices critical of the government, especially those of the ‘Clarín’ Media Group.

Clarín newspaper, along with various other media organisations, started opposing the government during the so-called campo crisis in 2008. As food prices soared on world markets, the president introduced a new sliding-scale taxation system for agricultural exports as a means of redistributing the country’s rural profits. This was rejected by farming associations, who staged a national lockout and blocked merchandise from entering Buenos Aires. After months of rural strikes and several protests in the capital, the government sent the tax bill to Congress, where it was eventually rejected by one vote.

The campo crisis caused the president’s approval rating to plummet from 57.8% at the start of her administration to an unprecedented 23%. Though her approval rating has since recovered, opinions still differ on the extent to which President Fernández de Kirchner implements the model.

According to Agustin Àlvarez, journalist in charge of politics at the Argentine newspaper La Razón: “On the one hand, the achievements of the president are fundamental. The revised media law and the Asignación Universal por Hijo [a cash transfer programme tied to a child’s school attendance and vaccinations, which aims to reduce poverty in the country’s poorer areas] are crucial examples of steps she is taking towards a more righteous and democratised Argentina.”

But Àlvarez adds that a lot is still missing. “More needs to be done with respect to education and public health. For example, the National Literacy Campaign, which was implemented in Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador, is still missing. Concerning the redistribution of wealth, she will need to focus much more on the big economic groups.”

The Vice

The campo crisis of 2008 led to a break down in the relationship between the president and current vice president, Julio Cobos, who, as head of the Senate, gave the deciding vote against the agricultural tax reform. Cobos was labelled a “traitor” by the president’s supporters after his “no” vote, but refused to resign.

Last Saturday, President Fernández de Kirchner announced that her new vice will be Amado Boudou, the current minister of economy, saying “after the things we have been through, it is most important to choose someone who is loyal and has courage.”

Augustin Àlvarez says the president’s high approval rating made the decision on who to choose as vice president a lot easier this time. “[The president] does not need to choose a vice president that gains her popularity. In 2007, it was a tactical move to choose Cobos. Since he is from the Radical party, President Fernández was able to satisfy a greater part of the population.”

“At the moment, she has between 40-46% of the votes. She can afford to choose a person that she considers loyal.”

Click here to find out what locals think of President Fernández de Kirchner’s re-election chances.

The government published in the Official Bulletin the definite dates for primary elections –which will be compulsory, open and simultaneous-, presidential elections and second ballot. These will take place 14th August, 23rd October and 20th November. During October’s commissions, apart from president and vice-president, Argentines will vote for the renovation of half of the House of Representatives while eight provinces will vote for senators.

Dates were set according to the Argentine law. However, according to decree 586, elections must be officially summoned by president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.

Decree 586 also states the creation of the General Electoral Command, an organization that would custody commissions, and authorized the Defense Ministry to “appoint the General Electoral Commander”. The Commander would have to coordinate and enforce the Electoral Code, amongst other tasks such as the monitoring of polling stations, venues and infrastructure for data processing for counting votes, headquarters of the National Electoral Board of each district and the custody of the polls.

These tasks will be carried out by the Armed Forces and the Security Forces’ personnel. Officers would have to be available for the General Electoral Command “five days prior commissions” and remain in service until these conclude.

The decree was not only signed by the president, but also by Chief of Staff Aníbal Fernández and ministers Arturo Puricelli, Nilda Garré, Florencio Randazzo and Amado Boudou.

As for the ruling party’s candidates for the City of Buenos Aires, president Fernández de Kirchner will announce her final verdict this week. This will determine whether economy minister Amado Boudou, labour minister Carlos Tomada or senator Daniel Filmus will run for the gubernatorial elections in the city. Sources explained that the president’s decision is expected for Wednesday.