Today, Venezuela’s presidential elections will determine if incumbent Hugo Chávez will govern the country for a third term, the completion of which would mark 20 consecutive years in office, or if Henrique Capriles Radonski will inaugurate a new chapter in Venezuelan history. Chávez stands upon a socialist platform of extensive social programmes funded in part by the nationally-run oil industry. Capriles characterises himself as “centre-left” and proposes free-market economic policies as well as social programmes.

The implications for Venezuela’s political future weigh on the minds of its neighbour to the south. Who do Argentines think will win? Who do they favour? What would Chávez’s re-election mean for Argentina? What kind of leader would Capriles be? There are few bland opinions on the matter.

Photos by Athena Feldshon

Alejandra Ariovich, 37, paediatrician, Buenos Aires

Chávez came to power because Venezuela has a history of corrupt presidents who cast aside a very important part of the Venezuelan population. Chávez has made mistakes but he’s also been right. He listened to a sector of the people, made interesting social policies, and on an international level, he’s made important policies within South America. At the moment, Capriles hasn’t thought through a model for the country; he’s only succeeded in opposing Chávez.
Daniel Belzer, 54, systems engineer, Buenos Aires

It seems to me like Latin America is copying [Chávez’s] model, a model that’s died across the world; it died in Cuba; it died in Russia; it died in Germany. They’re copying a model here that doesn’t have any possibility of success. The best thing that could happen to Latin America would be if Chávez loses. Venezuela has the fortune – that Argentina doesn’t: that Chávez has cancer and he doesn’t have much time left. Here, we haven’t been so lucky.
Rafael Mejía, 26, film student, El Salvador

It sucks. The people in Venezuela don’t have freedom because Chávez is a fucked up guy who wants to control his people. If he wins, it will mean the same thing it’s meant for years. Nothing will change. President Kirchner [sic] is becoming like him. From what I’ve heard, she wants a Venezuela/Argentina in which she’ll be president forever and ever. But I think the people are stronger; the masses can overcome him. We need peace!
Juan Fafian, 80, retired shopkeeper, Buenos Aires

Chávez is a very special character. I don’t like him very much; he’s too authoritarian, too crazy. Obviously there’s a big influence – not only an influence, a great agreement – between the government here and the government there. So if Chávez wins I don’t think the situation in Argentina would improve. But if the opposition wins, I think the Argentine government would find itself a little uncomfortable. You’d see a certain lack of trust, as much with him as here.
Esther Rivadeneira, 65, parapsychologist, Buenos Aires

I have all the hope in my heart that the opposition wins and that Chávez doesn’t. Venezuela is a beautiful country, but run by a terrible person. He’s dark. He wants to take control, to move the masses, to divide the poor and the powerful. No, no, no. And Mrs. Kirchner is Chávez’ daughter. If the other candidate wins, us Argentines will be even stronger to fight this woman who wants to run our lives and make her leave. Capriles, Capriles, Capriles, yes, yes, yes!

Patrick Duddy, ex-US Ambassador to Venezuela, released a surprising paper last month outlining a range of measures that could be taken by the United States after Sunday’s elections and warning against potential violence in the country.

Duddy, who was exiled from Venezuela in 2008 for his alleged involvement in a plot to overthrow the Chávez government, gives a range of “plausible” scenarios depending on the outcome of the elections. If there is not a clear win by Chávez or Capriles, or if Chávez becomes too ill to assume the presidency, Duddy predicts “a state of emergency”, with fuel shortages, street violence and the disappearance of basic food items, with businessmen “accused of hoarding”, as well as with both Chavistas and supporters of Capriles entering into violent conflict with one another. He claims “Chavistas will not willingly surrender power and would be willing to provoke violence, orchestrate civil unrest, or engage in various forms of armed resistance to avoid doing so.”

The former Ambassador emphasises the need for a fair and unbiased election, accusing Chávez of attempting to convince voters that a Capriles victory could only be achieved through corrupt means and through “covert US support.” He claims that the United States will be prepared to work with a Chávez government “provided the election is free, fair and constitutional.”

While supporting the “United States’ view that only Venezuelans can solve Venezuela’s political problems”, Duddy recommends several courses of action that the United States could take to remedy any potential “outbreak of violence and/or interruption of democracy”. These measures range from “freezing individual bank accounts of key figures involved or responsible”, suspending visas of those involved and “prohibiting [Venezuelan state] oil sales to the United States” to organising a “coalition of partners” in Europe, the United Nations and Japan to “limit an illegitimate Venezuelan administration’s access to government assets held abroad as well as to the international financial system”.

These worrying assertions from the former Bush-era Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs come as another blow to relations between the two countries. Last year, Venezuela was added to the US list of states that sponsor terrorism and the country was this year damned by Presidential candidate Mitt Romney as “spreading dictatorships and tyranny throughout Latin America”.

President of the National Electoral Council (CNE), Vicente Díaz, has claimed that there is no possibility that Sunday’s elections will have fraudulent results due to the fact that all of the voting machines, local councils and vote-counting committees are shielded, anonymous and “bulletproof”.

Díaz stated “I’m sure that both candidates would be happy to accept fair defeat. Whoever loses will accept the results because their technical team will have been there, testing the software and monitoring witnesses involved in the process.”

According to the head of the electoral accompaniment mission of the Union of South American Countries (UNASUR), Carlos Álvarez, there is “not even a small chance of the results being fraudulent”, saying that “Venezuela currently possesses one of the strongest and most technologically advanced electoral systems in the region of Latin America, which ensures transparency, control and vigilance at the polls.”

Alvárez reaffirmed this, explaining that in highly polarised societies such as Venezuela there are frequent accusations of fraud in voting, usually spurred on by the losing political party. This, he says, adds to the notion that developed-country organisations such as those from the US or Europe should observe elections to ensure their accuracy.

International figures have given their support to this issue: Ecuadorian president Rafael Correa affirmed his belief in seeing Sunday’s elections achieve a democratic outcome but warned against a “campaign to create doubts about the electoral result”. Barack Obama also expressed his hopes for “free and just” elections in Venezuela.

Mexico’s four presidential candidates are in the final stages of closing their campaigns, as next Sunday’s presidential election nears.

The winner will succeed current president Felipe Calderón (National Action Party, or PAN), who has held two terms of power since 2000. Before that, the Insitutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) held office for 72 years.

The candidates spoke to supports at various venues in Mexico this weekend.

Andres Manuel López Obrador (Democratic Revolution Party) held an event at Plaza Juárez in Guadalajara, where he remarked that on Monday, Mexico “will celebrate its fourth historical transformation” and that “there will be justice” for the Mexican people.

López Obrador ran for the presidential seat in 2006, but lost by a narrow margin against Calderón.

Enrique Peña Nieto (Institutional Revolutionary Party) holds the first place in the polls by a margin of around 12 to 16%, and is favoured to win the election. Peña Nieto, who spoke at Aztec Stadium in Mexico City, said he would be the indisputable winner of the election.

Josefina Vasquez Mota, from PAN, spoke at the pier of Port of Veracruz, and said, “I come to offer a possible Mexico, a Mexico for everyone, it’s now or never…”

Gabriel Quadri (New Alliance Party) closed his campaign in Tlalnepantla, reminding listeners that education is at the forefront of his policy.

Wednesday, 27th June marks the official last day of campaigns. López Obrador’s campaign will culminate with a march through Mexico City, Vázquez Mota’s will close at Omnilife Stadium in Guadalajara, Peña Nieto’s in Toluca and Quadri’s in Aguascalientes.

As election season begins to take shape in Venezuela, a challenger has arisen following Sunday’s primary opposition debates.

Henrique Capriles Rodonski, the 39 year-old governor of Miranda state, expressed his intention to run against President Hugo Chávez on 7th October.

Capriles, leader of the Justice First party, is also a former mayor and vice president of Congress. Describing himself as “centre-left”, Capriles says that the policies of his presidency would mirror those of former Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, encouraging new development while maintaining popular social programs.

Already, Capriles has been dismissed by Chávez as a “candidate of the Yankees” who will implement policies dictated from Washington. Capriles, however, vows to change the tone of Venezuelan politics.

“I intend be a president who speaks much less and does not invade the lives of Venezuelans every day,” Capriles said.

Chávez and Capriles have a previous link in the attempted coup of 2002, which sought to overthrow Chávez. At the time, Capriles, then mayor Barutas in Caracas, attempted to mediate riots at the Cuban embassy, but was met there by former vice president Diosdado Cabello. He was charged with violating international principles and spent four months in jail before his acquittal.

It is thought that Capriles’ chances have improved after an alliance was formed last week with Leopoldo Lopez of the Popular Will party, boosting his approval rating to 56%.

Campaigning on the slogan “There is a way”, Capriles will have to overcome his upper class background to reach all levels of Venezuelan society.

“This is not the hour of the left or the right,” Capriles recently said at a political rally. “This is Venezuela’s hour.”

Nicaragua’s incumbent president, 65-year-old Daniel Ortega, has been re-elected by a landslide following Sunday’s presidential election, the third time he has won at the ballot box. With 86% of the votes counted by late on Monday, the Sandinista (FSLN) candidate had the support of 63% of voters, an unassailable lead over nearest contender, the right-wing Fabio Gadea of the Liberal Independent Party (PLI) who obtained 31%.

As his supporters celebrated on the streets of the capital, Managua, one of them, 54-year-old lawyer Silvia Calderón told Reuters: “I’m happy … I think that the people are convinced, they voted for the social programmes, voted for the future, voted the poor.”

Gadea claimed that Ortega’s victory was due to widespread vote-rigging, saying: “We can’t accept these results presented by the Supreme Electoral Council because they don’t reflect the people’s wishes.” However, international observers including the Organization of American States, have said that whilst they were hindered in their work at some polling stations, there was no evidence to suggest that voting irregularities had affected the ultimate result. Luis Yañez, head of the European Union delegation said the election had occurred “in a climate of normality and tranquillity”.

Ortega was first elected president in 1984 after leading the revolutionary socialist Sandinista movement in overthrowing the American-backed dictator, Anastasio Somoza in 1979. President Reagan of the United States spent vast sums trying to dislodge Ortega during the 1980s, funding the Contra rebels against him in a civil war lasting a decade in which approximately 30,000 Nicaraguans died. He left office in 1990 after losing the presidential election to Violeta Chamorro.

After 16 years in opposition he made a spectacular return to elected office in 2007, narrowly winning the presidency with just 38% of the vote. Since then he has undergone something of a political metamorphosis, toning down his socialist rhetoric of the 1980s and repositioning himself as a social democrat, spending money on relieving poverty whilst promoting the full participation of the private sector in the economy, which has given him the backing of the business community as well as the working class.

On these policies he has had some measure of success which has boosted his support amongst the electorate. Backed by an estimated US$500m per year of oil money from Venezuela’s fellow leftist president, Hugo Chávez, Ortega embarked on an ambitious progamme of health and education, providing microcredits for small businesses and giving livestock to farmers, that has drawn praise from the World Bank, whilst still maintaining cordial relations with his old enemy, the United States.

Nicaragua, the poorest country in Central America has had one of the fastest growing economies in the region in recent years, growing at 4.5% in 2010, second only to Panamá and is on course to grow by 4% this year as well.

His opponents have criticised his ability to run for office again (a constitutional ban on consecutive terms was overturned in 2009 by the Supreme Court controlled by Sandinista appointees), worrying that he plans to stay in power indefinitely like his ally Chávez.

How much more of his social programme Ortega will be able to implement is debatable as Venezuela’s economy stagnates and Chávez’s grip on power becomes more tenuous, leaving him depend more on domestic growth to finance his anti-poverty agenda.

The president of Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, is expected to win the upcoming presidential election, which would put him in office for his third term.

Yesterday, the incumbent president took an early lead gaining 60% of the votes; his nearest rival, Fabio Gadeo received 25%. This is based on an initial sample of 40% of the polling stations.

Many of the president’s supporters celebrated on the streets of Managua last night.

Ortega, the 65-year-old leader of the Sandinista National Liberation Front, has focused his electoral campaign on cutting poverty and attracting new investors to the country. Venezuelan president, Hugo Chávez, has helped finance Ortega’s campaign.

The legitimacy of the election is unknown because of fears of a lack of party control and high drug crime in the country.

Ortega was the leader of the Sandinista party in 1979 that overthrew the dictator Anastasio Samuza

With over 98% of the votes counted, incumbent president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner of Frente para la Victoria won 53.96% of the votes, securing her presidency for four more years. Her closest opponent came in far behind with a margin of more than 35 points.

Yesterday’s election results are yet another stride in Cristina Fernández’ political career. She had already stepped into history when in 2007 she became the first female to be elected president of Argentina. Today, gender aside, her victory is among the most emphatic in the country’s last 100 years. Only two presidents have won with a higher share of the votes: Hipólito Yrigoyen, first president of the Unión Cívica Radical (UCR) party; and Juan Domingo Perón, creator of the Justicialista party and the Peronism movement.

There were other, smaller victories. In a surprise result, Hermes Binner from the Alianza Frente Amplio Progresista came second with just 16.87% of the vote, having gained on his nearest rivals by collecting over 5% more of the vote than in the August’s primaries. In response to some accusations, Binner said that he will not be a mere supporter of the FpV: “We will be the alternative in the Congress.”

Despite August’s primaries placing UCR candidate Ricardo Alfonsín second, he came in third with just 11% of the ballots. Eduardo Duhalde from the Alianza Frente Popular, on his revival in politics after disappearing since 2003, obtained almost ten percentage points fewer than in the primaries, coming in fifth. Alberto Rodriguez Sáa, candidate of Alizana Compromiso Federal ended up fourth. The former governor of San Luis proudly said: “My province is the only one she has yet to win.”

The worst night was for the candidate of the Coalición Cívica. Leader Elisa Carrió said: “It’s the worse election of our history.” In the presidential elections of 2007 Carrió came second with 23% of the votes. And in the mid-term elections of 2009 her party obtained more votes nationwide than the FpV, when the president’s popularity rating fell below 30%. Yesterday, Carrió picked up a mere 1.84%, leaving her party at the bottom of the list.

The days leading up to the elections lacked the typical pre-election fervor. Instead, there was more of a resigned “she has already won” in the public’s mind. Opposition parties campaigned for voters to cast their ballots in favour of their congressmen as they gave up on the idea of overtaking Cristina Fernández’ lead. This scepticism was due to the results of the primaries of 14th August.

In her words

After all her rival candidates had spoke publicly, the president appeared on the stand dressed in black and started her speech calmly. Meanwhile, supporters there started cheering against Julio Cobos, her first term vice-president, who will be replaced by Amado Boudou during the second term. She chastised them quickly, saying: “Stop or I’ll get mad: in victory one must be more generous and thankful.” Her tone became fervid when she mentioned her late husband, Néstor Kirchner, to whom she dedicated her victory and called “one of the best political figures Argentina has had.”

She went on to criticise the local press, saying “Some who have microphones talk about institutions but then demolish them slowly”, claiming that before the new media law they used to be untouchables who nobody could challenge, and politicians had to beg for a minute more on television or a couple more lines in the newspaper columns.

The president then marked the significance of continuity. She then specified: “Not a personal continuity, the importance of a political project of the nation.” This statement could be interpreted as a way of saying that she will not try to change the constitution in order to have unlimited re-elections, as some politicians such as Carrió are warning. In March 2011 the president said while addressing the Congress: “If I have not reached a simple majority to pass the budget bill, who could possibly think of a Constitutional reform?” Now that voters have granted her control of the legislature some believe she might try to establish unlimited re-elections.

She concluded her speech remembering her husband: “I know he is here right now, more than ever.” Later, her daughter Florencia and son Maximiliano – who is slowly gaining presence in politics – joined her on stage, to close the election night victory dancing and celebrating in Plaza de Mayo in front of thousands of people.

Buenos Aires Province mirrors Argentina

In the most populated province of the country, the presidential elections were simultaneous to the elections for governor. The candidate of the FpV, Daniel Scioli, was re-elected with 55% of the votes and leaving far behind the rest of the candidates. The resemblance to Cristina Fernández’ victory is clear as even the gap between the percentages of the candidates are almost identical. Both elections reflect not only the popularity of Kirchnerism but also the apparent downfall of opposite parties.

In Buenos Aires the UDESO candidate Francisco de Narváez came in second with 15.87% of the ballots; and Margarita Stolbizer for the same party as Hermes Binner ended up in third place with 11.68% of the votes.

Moreover, in Buenos Aires’s ballot there was also a candidate who in the mid term elections of 2009 received more votes than the FpV; and whose popularity today has weaken considerably. In 2009, Francisco De Narváez had reached a higher percentage of votes than Néstor Kirchner and Daniel Scioli himself. However, yesterday De Narváez could not manage to sustain his achievements, just as Elisa Carrió.

Daniel Scioli dedicated his triumph to the president and also mentioned Néstor Kirchner:”I had the privilege of accompanying him and starting this national project that Cristina [Fernández de] Kirchner is continuing magisterially.” In the province the blank votes surpassed the normal levels, reaching 12% of the votes, more votes than those collected by Stolbizer. Scioli’s victory leaves him as a possible candidate of the FpV in 2015 as President Fernández is not allowed to run for a third term.

President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and her vice-presidential running mate Amado Boudou, candidates for the Victory Front party, won a sweeping victory this afternoon in the presidential race with over 54% of the vote according to preliminary official figures based on 15.5% of polling stations.

Last August the team won slightly over 50% of the vote in the primary elections. Today, Fernández beat the prior record holder Raúl Alfonsín, for highest percentage of votes in a presidential election. Alfonsín, whose son was in the race today for president, won after the last military dictatorship in 1983, with 51% of the vote.

None of the candidates for the opposition in today’s race came close to achieving the votes necessary to force Fernández to a run-off election. Hermes Binner (Ample Progressive Front) came in second place with16.98% of the vote. Ricardo Alfonsín (Union for Social Development party) ended in third place with 13.21%. Alberto Rodríguez Saá (Federal Convergance party) finished fourth with 7.33%. Eduardo Duhualde (Popular Union party) came in fifth with 5.66%. Jorge Altamira (Left Front Party) won just 2.12% and Elisa Carrió (Civic Coalition party) finished in last place with 1.66% of the vote.

Governor of Buenos Aires Province Daniel Scioli beat candidate Francisco de Narvaez by more than 40 points with 57.6%. Narvaez won just 19.8%. The candidate of the Broad Progressive Front (FAP), Margarita Stolibizer, earned just 9%.

Over 29 million residents came out today to cast their ballots in the elections. Fernández will hold office until December, 2015.

It’s Friday again!

And remember this? Remember how the Rapture was postponed until October 21st? Well, it’s supposed to be today and no one cares. Maybe it’s because we are already in hell.

Anyway, it was unusually quiet this week so there’s not much to talk about.

Maybe because it’s the calm before the storm. The election storm, that is, because in case you didn’t know, the presidential elections in Argentina are taking place in two days!

So let’s get down to business, shall we?

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  A tumbleweed, the universal symbol for "nothing is happening." (Photo/Wikipedia)

  Yes, I know that politics is “not your thing” and that you’d rather watch soft core porn on the local version of Dancing With the Stars, but worry not! Because I’ve compiled all the important information about the local candidates in a very easy-to-read article that I’m sure you’ll find most enlightening. There’s pictures and everything! It’s like “Presidential Candidates for Dummies,” only the dummy is you. So here it is. Enjoy!

• Oh yeah, it’s also below this article, so you don’t really have to click on that link. Anyway, whatever, do what you wanna do.